Belgium is projected to reach around 33.6 GW of installed PV capacity by the end of 2035, according to a new report from Belgian grid operator Elia.

The country is also predicted to see its operation PV power increase from around 12.6 GW at the end of 2025 to 22.5 GW at the end of 2030.

“While solar PV is expected to continue being expanded due to falling costs, the development of offshore wind faces more structural challenges that may limit its further growth,” said Elia, noting that wind capacity may grow in the country from around 3.4 GW currently to 7.6 GW by the end of 2035.

In a similar report published in 2017, Elia said it expected the country's PV capacity to reach 18 GW in 2040.

“Electrification and digitalization are triggering a transformation of the Belgian electricity system,” the report's authors stated, noting that the capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM) will be widely utilized to ensure existing and new capacity. “While adequacy is ensured in the short term, additional capacity will be needed from 2028 onwards to maintain the country’s security of supply.”

CRM auctions are pointed out as a potential tool to increase battery storage capacity while keeping “vital” thermal capacity online.

“However, complementary structural measures could be considered to safeguard long-term reliability,” the report noted. “A critical enabler of the ongoing transition is the accelerated development of flexibility across the entire Belgian energy system. From consumer-side response and storage to controllable renewables, flexible resources are essential for managing volatility, ensuring grid stability, and making efficient use of surplus levels of renewable generation.”

Solar and wind power curtailment is mentioned in the report as one of the main measures intended to increase system flexibility.

At the end of 2024, Belgium’s cumulative solar capacity stood at around 12 GW, which is equivalent to 13% of the country’s electricity consumption last year.

Belgium’s three macro-regions – Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels – each have their own individual regulatory frameworks for solar and renewable energy.

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