China’s total installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 3.99 TW by the end of 2025, up 19.2% from a year earlier, with wind and solar accounting for nearly half of the total, the State Grid Energy Research Institute (SGERI) said in its newly released China Power Supply and Demand Analysis Report (2025).

The report said that wind and solar will contribute 500 GW of new capacity in 2025, including 140 GW from wind, a 77.1% year-on-year increase, and 380 GW from solar, up 35.5%. This marks the first time renewable additions will surpass 500 GW per year in China.

By the end of May 2025, China had added 197.85 GW of solar capacity and 46.28 GW of wind for the year, representing year-on-year growth of 150% and 134%, respectively. Cumulative solar and wind capacity reached 1.684 TW, comprising 45.8% of the country’s total generation capacity.

China’s cumulative installed solar capacity has surpassed 1 TW, according to the National Energy Administration. As of May 2025, solar capacity stood at 1.08 TW, or 1,080 GW, up 56.9% from a year earlier.

The country’s power consumption is also increasing. Total electricity demand in 2025 is projected to exceed 10 trillion kWh, about 5% higher than in 2024, supported by ongoing economic growth. GDP is expected to expand by 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025, with 5% as the baseline scenario.

In 2024, electricity demand reached 9.85 trillion kWh, up 6.8% year on year. Industrial use remained dominant, accounting for nearly half of total consumption. Power use in high-tech manufacturing rose 10.3%, outpacing growth in the broader manufacturing sector. In contrast, traditional high-energy sectors such as steel and cement posted declines, weighed down by weakness in real estate and ongoing production restructuring.

SGERI also noted a shift in China’s energy mix. At the end of 2024, total generation capacity was 3.35 TW, with wind and solar making up 42% and non-fossil sources accounting for 58.2%. Coal remained dominant in actual power generation, producing 18 percentage points more electricity than its share of capacity would suggest.

To strengthen grid flexibility and improve interregional power balancing, several ultra-high-voltage transmission projects – including Qingdong, Zhongheng, and Kunyu – are set to come online in 2025.

While overall supply-demand conditions are expected to improve in 2025, SGERI warned that supply could tighten during peak summer periods in some areas. No large-scale power rationing is expected, and the winter outlook is largely balanced.

The report also cited emerging loads such as data centers, 5G base stations, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Data center consumption is expected to exceed 160 billion kWh in 2025, while 5G-related demand may contribute more than 30 billion kWh.

With record capacity additions and accelerating decarbonization, 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for China’s power sector transformation, coinciding with the final year of the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan.

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