Nuvama Institutional Equities has warned that India’s cement industry is expected to record subdued volume growth in the first half of fiscal year 2026-27 before a recovery in the second half. The brokerage assessed that price increases implemented in April 2026 will be insufficient to offset an overall decline in sector profitability. It attributed the outlook to weak demand and fresh capacity additions scheduled during fiscal years 2026-27 and 2027-28 that are likely to keep prices under pressure.

The report noted that demand was sluggish in April and May 2026 owing to global uncertainty, labour shortages, heatwaves, constraints in raw materials and unseasonal rainfall. Producers raised prices across regions in April to mitigate rising petcoke costs and higher packaging expenses, but the increases proved short lived. Nuvama reported that standard petcoke prices rose to USD153/t, around USD41/t higher than in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025-26.

Price correction followed weaker demand, limiting the net increase to about Rs 10-12 per bag by the end of the quarter. Imported petcoke prices have since fallen to USD132/t from a recent peak of USD168/t, although they remained roughly USD20/t higher quarter on quarter. The brokerage expected the higher input cost impact to begin reflecting from late quarter one of FY27 and to continue into early quarter two.

Nuvama also estimated that crude linked increases were likely to raise packaging costs by about Rs 120-150/t and to exert upward pressure on freight. It warned that soft demand combined with significant new supply coming on stream in FY27-28 would keep pricing under strain and constrain near term margin recovery. The report concluded that volume growth was likely to be sluggish in the first half of FY27 before recovering in the second half.

Andhra Pradesh Education and IT Minister Nara Lokesh on Wednesday laid the foundation stone for the Line-2 expansion of Dalmia Bharat Cement at Chinnakomerla village in Mylavaram Mandal in Kadapa district. The project carries an investment of Rs 31 billion (bn) and is slated for completion by the third quarter of the financial year 2028. The expansion is intended to boost industrial growth and employment generation across the Rayalaseema region.

Once commissioned, the Kadapa facility will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated cement manufacturing ecosystem in southern India, creating over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs and opening new business avenues for regional micro, small and medium enterprises and transport operators. Lokesh said the expansion signalled growing corporate confidence in the state and reflected the practical ease of doing business that secured repeat investment.

He placed the project within the government’s wider economic targets and recalled the Yuvagalam padayatra commitment to generate two million (mn) jobs within five years, noting that the state would cultivate talent while industry created opportunities. Lokesh highlighted Andhra Pradesh’s competitive pursuit of major manufacturing accounts, mentioning past successes and a personal initiative to engage global investors when persuading them to anchor expansion in the state.

The plant will leverage Kadapa’s abundant limestone reserves to scale production and sustainability. Clinker capacity is planned to rise from two point five million tonnes per annum (mn tpa) to six point one mn tpa, while overall cement output will increase from three point six mn tpa to nine point six mn tpa. The unit is designed to operate on over eighty per cent renewable energy and deploy waste heat recovery, zero liquid discharge, water recycling and advanced AI systems to optimise efficiency. Industries Minister TG Bharat, BC Welfare Minister S. Savitha and Jammalamadugu MLA C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the ceremony.

HDFC Securities has said the cement industry is unlikely to register a sequential increase in prices in Q2 FY27 as monsoon-related demand moderation coincides with rising fuel and packaging costs that will squeeze margins. The brokerage observed that price gains remained modest, with increases of two to three per cent quarter-on-quarter across regions, and noted subdued offtake in May with improvement in June as a delayed monsoon supported construction activity. The brokerage added that modest pricing gains so far have been insufficient to offset the input cost escalation.

The report stated that input cost pressures intensified in Q1 FY27 owing to the West Asia conflict, which pushed up coal and pet coke prices and is expected to keep fuel costs elevated, with a likely peak in Q2 FY27. It assessed that total variable costs, including packing, could rise by around Rs 150 per t quarter-on-quarter and that lower offtake and seasonal operating deleverage could further raise operating expenditure by about Rs 50 per t quarter-on-quarter.

Overall, cement prices were estimated to remain flat in Q2 FY27 as monsoon-led demand weakness offsets limited upside in realisation, and rising fuel costs alongside seasonal deleverage were expected to compress industry margins by over Rs 100 per t quarter-on-quarter to below Rs 880 per t. The brokerage indicated that the combined impact of energy inflation and higher packing expenditure would be the principal drivers of margin contraction in the near term. HDFC Securities projected a recovery in margins in H2 FY27 should the West Asia turmoil subside and energy and packing costs cool off.

The brokerage expressed optimism on long-term demand fundamentals and said improving realisation together with an anticipated cost cool-off should support a margin rebound from H2 FY27 onward, underpinning favourable industry prospects over the medium term. Its outlook rests on monsoon normalisation and a decline in imported fuel prices in the second half of the fiscal year.