From pv magazine Brazil

The opening session of the Intersolar Summit Northeast Congress in Fortaleza (CE) highlighted a solar sector undergoing rapid transformation, shaped by structural challenges and new market opportunities. Rodrigo Sauaia, executive president of Absolar, and Barbara Rubim, CEO of Bright Strategies, agreed that solar growth in Brazil has entered a new phase.

Sauaia highlighted the country's Northeast’s leading role in solar expansion, with around 74 GW of the 117 GW of projects under development located in the region, compared with a national power mix of roughly 265 GW. He said states such as Ceará are at the center of current sector tensions, particularly due to generation curtailment, which has significantly affected projects.

“The expansion of the free market, which already accounts for 43% to 44% of national consumption, opens space for solar growth through new business models, but requires a complete shift in companies’ approach,” he said, adding that the sector must move beyond selling systems toward offering integrated energy solutions, including storage.

In this context, the recently introduced Law 15,269 marks a milestone, introducing provisions such as the inclusion of storage in the legal framework and tax incentives. However, Sauaia pointed to controversial elements, including the allocation of battery reserve contracting costs exclusively to generators, which could increase tariffs and create distortions.

“Storage has finally entered the law, but with provisions that still need adjustment, especially regarding cost allocation and impacts on future auctions,” he said.

He also flagged what he described as a “regulatory distortion,” arguing that access to The Special Incentive Regime for Infrastructure Development (REIDI) benefits for solar projects is tied to the inclusion of batteries, which could increase costs and reduce competitiveness.

On the distributed generation front, Rubim said the segment continues to grow in absolute terms but is showing signs of slower percentage growth, reflecting both market maturation and regulatory and technical constraints.

“Microgeneration continues to expand steadily, while minigeneration is already declining, with new projects becoming unviable due to connection limits and reverse power flow restrictions,” she said.

She noted that perceptions of continued growth often overlook the role of legacy projects approved before recent regulatory changes. New minigeneration projects now face a more challenging environment.

Grid saturation is another concern. Rubim said some regions with high distributed generation penetration are approaching or exceeding 20% – a level at which international markets begin to encounter structural challenges.

“This does not mean distributors are always right to deny connections, but physical limits must be acknowledged. Assessments need to be technical, at the transformer and substation level,” she said.

She added that regulatory uncertainty – particularly around future compensation mechanisms and the rollout of time-of-use tariffs – is affecting consumer decisions. Consumers already bear about 60% of low-voltage grid costs and face uncertainty over system payback.

Both speakers identified energy storage as a key driver of the sector’s next phase.

Sauaia said storage will be critical not only to mitigate curtailment but also to unlock new demand from segments such as data centers, green hydrogen, and industrial electrification.

Rubim emphasized the role of batteries in demand management and in balancing generation and consumption, particularly in distributed systems.

“The future of distributed generation is hybrid. Batteries are the new distributed generation,” she said. “They enable load shifting, lower tariff costs, and greater predictability, an increasingly important factor for consumers.”

She said hybrid systems are already showing average payback periods of around five years, combining savings, backup capacity, and greater energy independence. However, adoption remains limited by barriers such as a lack of installer training.

The opening session underscored a clear message: Brazil’s solar sector continues to expand but is entering a more complex phase in which regulation, infrastructure, and technology must evolve in tandem.

Between generation cuts, grid saturation, and regulatory changes, the next phase of growth will depend less on installing panels and more on the sector’s ability to integrate solutions, with storage at the center of this shift.

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