From pv magazine Mexico

Sener, Mexico’s energy ministry, has published the Programa de Desarrollo del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional (Prosener) 2025-30, which prioritizes renewables and energy storage to strengthen the electricity system. The plan projects between 6,400 MW and 9,550 MW of new generation capacity, 96% from solar and wind, with clean power expected to account for 38% of total generation by 2030.

Prosener combines public investment with private participation in generation and storage, alongside measures to promote efficiency, technological innovation, and electrification. The plan also emphasizes grid flexibility through storage and backup systems to manage intermittent output from renewables.

The strategy retains natural gas as a balancing source and proposes expanding and modernizing gas transport and distribution to secure supply for power plants and industry. Pemex will maintain refining operations under plans to reduce fuel imports and improve refinery efficiency.

Sener’s plan keeps a mixed electricity market in which the CFE will supply at least 54% of grid electricity, with private generators providing the remainder. CFE reported that distributed solar capacity rose by 1.09 GW in 2024, reaching 4.42 GW by year-end.

Analysts have projected higher growth than Sener’s baseline. A SolarPower Europe–Global Solar Council report in August estimated that Mexico could reach 15.2 GW of solar by 2028 and 17 GW by 2029, while Ember noted that 36 GW of solar paired with 30 GWh of batteries could raise renewables’ share to 45% by 2030.

Prosener also envisions hydro, geothermal, and biomass generation to diversify the energy mix. The plan includes measures to optimize hydro capacity, expand geothermal projects, and promote use of agricultural and industrial residues for energy.

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