Personally, I believe the UK needs a new steel strategy, but the measures introduced under the current tariff quota system have gone too far. Customers are still looking for affordable steel in order to compete with competitors or imported finished products.

Looking specifically at Category A hot-rolled coil (HRC) products, I believe this situation effectively paves the way for TATA UK to establish a monopoly position in the UK market. This will begin to harm service centers that compete with TATA’s distribution network in the UK.

We are already seeing significant price increases in imported steel because companies do not want to take the risk of exceeding quotas and paying the 50% tariff. Margins in the steel sector are not high enough to absorb these additional costs.

Looking at TATA, the only Category A producer in the UK, and Liberty Steel Newport, which is currently mothballed, there is not enough capacity to provide the range of products required by UK buyers.

For example, products with widths of 1,830–2,000 mm are not produced in the UK, and these dimensions are particularly important for the yellow goods and agricultural equipment sectors.

TATA is currently producing using imported slab because the new electric arc furnace (EAF) at its Port Talbot facility has not yet started operations. I believe commissioning this facility will likely take at least another 12–24 months.

Therefore, steel imports from Europe will continue (from producers such as NLMK, Thyssenkrupp, ArcelorMittal, Tata Netherlands, and SSAB). Demand in the UK has not increased. Therefore, controlling import volumes may be positive, but the current tariffs and quotas do not sufficiently consider their impact on the downstream segments of the UK steel supply chain.

It is difficult to say because I have only been working for a Türkiye-based steel trading company for seven months. However, I believe this development will have negative consequences. These measures will either push suppliers away from the UK market or force them to compete with lower prices in order to absorb the tariffs into their pricing. As a result, pressure on producers and traders will increase further.

I believe the risks outweigh the opportunities. The main risks will be tariffs and ensuring that materials are delivered on time and cleared through customs smoothly when quotas become available.